From Burn Rates to Break-Even: Southeast Asia’s $128 Billion Ecommerce Shift
In June 2025, Momentum Works released its highly anticipated Ecommerce in Southeast Asia 2025 report — a comprehensive 66-page analysis chronicling the region’s ecommerce evolution. The headline number is striking: Southeast Asia’s total ecommerce Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) reached US$128.4 billion in 2024. While this marks a 12% year-on-year (YoY) growth — a deceleration from the larger double-digit surges seen during the pandemic boom — it reflects a deeper, more important shift: the region’s ecommerce ecosystem is maturing, prioritizing sustainable unit economics over short-term user acquisition subsidies.
For investors, analysts, private equity, and venture capital firms eyeing the region’s consumer digital economy, this report offers not only market sizing and platform dynamics, but also a granular view of logistics consolidation, AI disruption, evolving consumer behavior, and the rise of omnichannel commerce. The shift from growth-at-all-costs to profit-focused execution marks a pivotal turning point for the sector.
The Maturing Southeast Asian Ecommerce Market
The region’s platform GMV of US$128.4 billion in 2024 was driven by growth across multiple countries, led by Thailand (+21.7%) and Malaysia (+19.5%), outpacing regional peers. Indonesia, while growing more slowly, remains Southeast Asia’s ecommerce heavyweight, contributing a dominant 44% of platform GMV.
Critically, this phase of growth has moved away from the costly “subsidy wars” of previous years — when platforms burned billions to attract buyers and sellers. In 2024, companies began focusing on ROI, margin discipline, and operational leverage. Logistics, adtech, and AI-assisted operations were optimized. This shift, although less sensational than past headline-grabbing growth, is arguably more investable in the long term, favoring platforms that can scale with fewer cash burn requirements.
Platform Concentration and Strategic Differentiation
Three platforms — Shopee, TikTok Shop, and Lazada — now account for over 90% of platform GMV in Southeast Asia.
Shopee retained market leadership with 52% share in 2024, thanks to its deep control over logistics and payments infrastructure, ad automation via “GMV Max,” and a consistent user experience across markets.
TikTok Shop continued its rapid transformation into a commerce engine through “discovery commerce” — blending entertainment with real-time shopping. Its algorithmic personalization gives it a unique edge in converting engagement into transactions.
Lazada emerged as a dark horse this year by achieving profitability for the first time, largely due to a pivot toward branded goods, curated selection, and the deployment of AI technologies to optimize ad targeting, inventory, and recommendations.
Notably, while these top three dominate most countries, Indonesia’s ecommerce landscape remains fragmented — a holdover from the legacy of Bukalapak, Tokopedia, and new players testing alternative business models in a massive market.
The Rise of Non-Platform Channels
For the first time, Momentum Works estimated US$16.8 billion in GMV flowing through non-platform ecommerce channels such as brand.com websites, multi-brand retailers, WhatsApp commerce, and social commerce outside TikTok. This addition brings the total GMV to US$145.2 billion and marks a key evolution in consumer behavior and brand strategy.
These channels often provide better margins for brands, tighter customer data control, and more flexible pricing. As ecommerce matures, brands are reclaiming ownership of their customer relationships, signaling the emergence of omnichannel strategies. For investors, this development opens up a wide range of upstream and midstream opportunities in SaaS, fintech, D2C enablers, and supply chain platforms.
Key 2025 Trends and Strategic Shifts
1. Live and Video Commerce Achieve Critical Mass
TikTok Shop has become the region’s undisputed leader in live commerce, capitalizing on its native video-first format. Shopee has also integrated live features but emphasizes scalability and conversion over entertainment.
A key insight: video content — not just livestreaming — has become a core GMV and ROI driver. Platforms are shifting ad budgets away from static product listings to video ads and influencer content, democratizing access for small brands and creators.
2. Logistics Consolidation and Margin Pressure
Ecommerce logistics remains platform-driven. Third-party logistics (3PLs) are being squeezed, both on pricing and volumes, as platforms consolidate delivery infrastructure to improve margins and speed. Expect further M&A and vertical integration in logistics as platforms push for cost efficiency.
3. Rise of Chinese and Local Challenger Brands
Global consumer giants are facing growing pressure from nimble Chinese and Southeast Asian challengers who iterate faster, localize more effectively, and embrace ecommerce-first models. Chinese brands, in particular, are rewriting their Southeast Asia playbooks — focusing on localized pricing, TikTok-based engagement, and cross-border supply chains.
4. Commoditization of Ecommerce Skills
As ecommerce becomes a “default” go-to-market channel, skills such as storefront management, ad buying, and basic logistics have become commoditized. Agencies and service providers are moving up the value chain to defend margins — offering advanced analytics, brand incubation, and even private-label development. This commoditization could reshape the service layer of the ecommerce ecosystem.
5. AI Transformation of Ecommerce
The report’s bonus section outlines how Generative AI (GenAI) is disrupting ecommerce across content creation, customer service, product matching, and advertising. Operations that were previously manual — like listing creation, image generation, and customer chat — are being automated.
By 2030, GenAI is projected to contribute US$131 billion in additional GMV to the region. Already, players like Lazada and Shopee are integrating AI across core workflows, a trend that savvy investors should watch closely, especially in AI startups targeting ecommerce verticals.
The Future of Omnichannel and Cross-Border Ecommerce
Momentum Works notes that single-country platforms continue to falter, while regional platforms are thriving. Cross-border ecommerce — especially from China and Korea — is accelerating, aided by trade agreements, improved payments infrastructure, and consumer familiarity with overseas brands.
Furthermore, beyond-platform ecommerce is no longer a niche. Brands now see ecommerce as a multi-lane highway, not a single platform bet. WhatsApp storefronts, live-selling Facebook groups, brand-owned stores, and even offline-online hybrids are becoming common.
The implication? Ecommerce is not just “platform-based” anymore — it’s ecosystem-based. Investors should look for horizontal winners across payments, logistics, enablers, and AI-powered SaaS that can plug into multiple channels.
Conclusion: From GMV to Profitability, and from Platforms to Ecosystems
Southeast Asia’s ecommerce sector is moving into its next act — from growth to sustainability, from platform monopolies to ecosystem complexity, and from manual operations to AI-led automation. While overall growth has slowed, it’s a positive sign: irrational capital expenditure is giving way to disciplined execution.
For investors, this means shifting focus from gross metrics like GMV to unit economics, operational leverage, and margin expansion. The most exciting opportunities ahead are not just in the platforms themselves, but in the foundational infrastructure powering this new, more profitable ecommerce future.
Investor Takeaway
For serious investors, ecommerce in Southeast Asia is no longer a binary bet on which platform wins. It’s a multifaceted, ROI-driven, AI-enabled ecosystem with depth, diversity, and durability. The region is undergoing the same transformation the U.S. and China did before it — albeit faster, and with more channels in play.