Southeast Asia Market Insights: From Little Dip to Big Hopes

April 18, 2025 Edition

Since its launch on December 31, 2024, The International Investor’s Southeast Asia Index — a basket of seven U.S.-listed ETFs, or exchange-traded funds, tracking the region’s markets — has had a bit of a stumble. As of April 18, 2025, it’s down 4.6%, or US$461, bringing the index’s total market value to US$9,539 from the original US$10,000. Not ideal, but context is everything: during the same stretch, U.S. equities plunged 11.7%, making Southeast Asia the relative winner in a rough market.

The Southeast Asia Index’s Performance vs. the broader U.S. Market (December 31, 2024 to April 18, 2025)

Under the hood, country-level returns were all over the map. Singapore led the pack with a solid +5.7%, followed by a modest +1.1% from the Philippines. Vietnam dipped -1.5%, while ASEAN’s Top 40 Companies fell -3.9%. Deeper in the red were Malaysia at -7.2%, Indonesia at -12.7%, and Thailand at -13.8%.

But if there’s one thing Warren Buffett loves reminding us, it’s this: stock prices are just the scoreboard. What matters is how the businesses are playing the game.

Looking ahead, analysts are forecasting the region’s businesses to grow their earnings at a healthy 12.8% annually over the next three years. Add in a 3.3% dividend yield-on-cost, and we’re staring at a potential 16.1% annual return. That’s the kind of forward momentum that makes short-term losses a little easier to stomach.

Here’s where that earnings growth is coming from:

• Indonesia: 22.3%

• Thailand: 12.8%

• Vietnam: 12.4%

• Philippines: 11.0%

• Singapore: 10.1%

• Malaysia: 8.0%

Drill down even further, and analysts are particularly bullish on select sectors within each country — those expected to lead the earnings charge over the next three to five years:

• Indonesia: Materials (+68.5%)

• Thailand: Materials (+46.0%)

• Singapore: Healthcare (+26.3%)

• Vietnam: Energy (+24.4%)

• Philippines: Materials (+21.5%)

• Malaysia: Tech (+21.2%)

So while the index has taken a short-term dip, the long-term story looks much more compelling. For now, it’s less about the scoreboard — and more about the playbook.

Remember, markets are short-term irrational but long-term wise. Focus on earnings growth. Focus on the value. Buy at a discount. Ignore the noise. Think three years, not three months. Stay smart. Stay global.

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🔥 SeA (Southeast Asia) Focus Portfolio Performance Update

The International Investor manages the SeA (Southeast Asia) Focus Portfolio and publishes its investment performance for the informational and educational benefit of investors and readers.

From its inception on December 16, 2023, to March 31, 2025, the portfolio, which invests in the highest-quality and fastest-growing businesses in Southeast Asia at attractive prices, delivered a total return of +92.9%, or an annualized return of +62.8%, outperforming all Southeast Asian country index funds.

Follow the portfolio here.

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The International Investor manages a hedge fund for a select group of investors. The fund invests in the world’s highest-quality businesses with high and sustainable returns on capital at attractive prices and margins of safety relative to what they’re intrinsically worth. The fund maintains a focused portfolio, invests fundamentally and intelligently, and trades infrequently. The fund generates superior returns over time with minimum business risk, regardless of the global market environment.

The International Investor manages the SeA (Southeast Asia) Focus Portfolio for a select group of investors and publishes its investment performance for the informational and educational benefit of investors and readers.

The content is for informational purposes only and is neither an offer to buy or sell securities nor investment advice. Forward-looking statements may be uncertain, and historical returns may not predict future performance. The International Investor is not a registered broker-dealer, investment adviser, or fiduciary.